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USC vs. UCLA preview 12/1/2007 and College Football 2007 Week 13 Analysis
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In a season that has turned out to be - dare I say - wild and wooly, USC and UCLA will arrive at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum playing for a berth in the Rose Bowl. USC can get there by winning out. This was the expected outcome, except for the fact that USC was also expected to be in the BCS championship. One unlikely loss to the Stanford Cardinal may prove to be the greatest of upsets for the whole season. It is already in the books as the biggest point spread difference in college football history. UCLA needs to beat USC and hope that Arizona beats Arizona State. Arizona State hopes that UCLA wins and that they beat Arizona. The Oregon Ducks are out of contention. Greg Patton of the Riverside Press -Enterprise calls the Bruins a "daisy in the way of a lawnmower".
How does this work out? Turn to page 116 of the Pac-10 conference 2007 media guide (available at http://www.pac-10.org)
USC is automatically the sole holder of first place if they beat the Bruins and Arizona beats Arizona State. If UCLA beats USC and Arizona State wins, the Sun Devils are the sole holder of first place.
a. Two-Team Tie.
The winner of the game between the two teams shall be the representative.
If USC beats UCLA, and Arizona State beats Arizona, USC has beaten ASU in the head to head matchup. USC is the Rose Bowl representative. This is the most probable scenario. Historically, this is also the most common scenario with USC winning or sharing the conference championship.
b. Multiple-Team Ties.
(1) When three or more teams are tied in Conference play, if one has defeated all others, it shall be the Rose Bowl representative.
If UCLA beats USC and Arizona beats Arizona State, then the winner of the Civil war between Oregon and Oregon State joins UCLA, Arizona State, and USC in a four way tie for first place. No team will have defeated all others. They will all have 6-3 records.
If that is not the case, a comparison of the tied teams records against the other tied teams shall be made and the team having the best record against the other tied teams shall be the RoseBowl representative.
Aha, UCLA would have defeated USC and either Oregon or Oregon State. ASU only has UCLA. USC only has ASU. Oregon State has none, but Oregon would have USC and Arizona State. So that leaves UCLA and Oregon.
If two or more teams are still tied after this comparison, the appropriate two-team or multiple-team tie-breaking procedures shall be repeated among those teams still under consideration.
UCLA defeated Oregon.
Step two in the Multi-team procedure needed to be calculated in the preview of the 2005 USC vs. UCLA game (see below for link), with the Bruin loss to Arizona becoming the deciding factor in a possible three way tie. In the end, USC won out and headed to the 2006 Rose Bowl.
It has to be used as well if there is a four way tie with ASU, UCLA, USC and Oregon State. USC, UCLA and Arizona State would all be 2-1 against the other teams in
the tie; Oregon State would be 0-3, so the Beavers would be eliminated.
The next tiebreaker is each remaining teams record against the other two -- still a tie; all would be 1-1.
(2) If more than two teams are still tied after the process above is completed, each remaining tied team’s record against the team occupying the highest position in the final regular season standings shall be compared, with the procedure continuing down through the standings until one team gains an advantage.
which would be Oregon and
Arizona, tied for fifth. USC and UCLA would be 1-1; Arizona State would
be 0-2, eliminating the Sun Devils.
That takes it to a head-to-head tiebreaker between UCLA and USC, which the Bruins get if they beat the Trojans.
In the whole history of West Coast PCC, AAWU, Pac-8 and Pac-10 football, there has never been a four way tie for first in the conference. Also, there has never been a conference champion with 3 losses in conference. There have been only three ties for first with three teams: 1935, 1959, and 1993. Interestingly, UCLA figures in all three. There have only been six seasons where the conference champions had two losses: 1941, 1957, 1981, 1985, 1992, and 1993. In 1985, UCLA needed an Arizona defeat of Arizona State to back them into the Rose Bowl.
Karl Dorrell is on the hot seat if you believe the vocal minority with keyboards. My opinion is that the head coach should not be fired unless there is a better alternative to be gotten. Minnesota was extremely lucky to have Tubby Smith available after firing head basketball coach Dan Monson, who was a proven candidate. UCLA does not have a good candidate to replace Karl Dorrell. More importantly, UCLA is not willing to spend the money to replace Karl Dorrell. UCLA just finished paying for four years of golfing and loafing for Bob Toledo. They would be on the hook for paying through the 2011 season if they let Karl go now. This means somewhere on the order of 1-2 million dollars depending upon the new sources. If UCLA loses, they will likely be in fourth or fifth place with an Emerald Bowl or Las Vegas Bowl berth. Bruins fans are not likely to be happy with either scenario. Especially since they have lost at both of those bowl games.
Pete Carroll is not on the hot seat, you might think. However, the Reggie Bush agent deal is now officially part of the NCAA investigation. If Reggie turns out to be an ineligible player, the Bruins could rack up two more wins against the Trojans without even playing a game. If Karl gets fired, the back dated wins against USC still will not help him. An NFL deal will likely lure Pete out of USC. However, well heeled alumni could keep him there. No matter what happens now, they will always have that 2003 AP national championship.
The game kicks off at 1:30pm Pacific time, 3:30pm Central, 4:30pm Eastern. Saturday December 1st promises to be 59 and cloudy with a chance of rain in Los Angeles.
Look back at Previous Group29 UCLA / USC Previews
*UCLA vs. USC Preview 12/2/2006 College Football matchup
*USC vs. UCLA football preview 12/3/2005
*PAC-10 for the Bowl Championship Series Berth 2005
*UCLA vs. USC 2004 Football Preview 12/4/2004
Rest of the teams in the 2007 college football scene
Kansas and Missouri came together in the biggest game of their rivalry, and who won out? Not Kansas, the higher ranked team, but Missouri. It just keeps on going. But now Missouri has to beat Oklahoma in the Big 12 championship. I think that when all is settled, Oklahoma emerges as the Big 12 champion. They just pummeled the Oklahoma State Cowboys. It would just figure, since they were picked to win the conference.
BC and Virginia Tech will square off in the ACC championship. BC has Matt Ryan and has accounted for one of the Hokies two losses, the other being to LSU. I choose BC.
BYU, which is one of the team that UCLA defeated, whipped past Utah, which is one of the teams that UCLA lost to. This final score in the Holy War is one of the things that makes the season inexplicable. BYU will head to the Las Vegas bowl, where they could face, um, UCLA as the fourth place PAC-10 selection! The Cougars still have a wildfire make up game against San Diego State. But it has no bearing since they have already won the Mountain West championship.
In the SEC it will be Tennessee vs LSU in the championship game. I like Tennessee ever since week 1 and the Saturday night game against Cal. Cal stumbled along with a number of other teams, but those were two great teams that first week.
<< Back to College football 2007 Week 12 Analysis RIVALRY WEEK on Group29.com
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Posted on Monday, November 26, 2007 @ 01:51:23 UTC by BB
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Brian Dohn: Should Karl Dorrell be credited with the Oregon Win? (Score: 1)
by BB on Monday, November 26, 2007 @ 05:10:59 UTC
(User Info ) http://www.group29.com | Brian Dohn covers UCLA football for the LA Daily News. He asked whether UCLA coach Karl Dorrell should be credited with the Oregon Win, considering that the Ducks lost their quarterback.
Karl Dorrell gets credited with this win just as he gets credited for all the wins and losses. After the season the stats in the media guide will reflect his coaching record. Obviously there is a vociferous group that hates losing any time. And clearly four out of five this year have been very frustrating losses. I am in the group that likes wins, to paraphrase what Charlie Weis said last year after the Notre Dame game, "I'll take 'em any way I can get 'em." It is nice to be able to take advantage of someone else's quarterback injuries for a change. This is my favorite week because of all the attention on the SC game and all of talk that comes out. A loss to SC would be rotten, a win would be great. My life will go on regardless of who is the coach. All the gnashing of teeth and wailing is just not worth it. |
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