Here is the scenario now that Oregon defeated Oregon State on Saturday, and Fresno State lost to USC (albeit just barely). USC, UCLA, and Oregon could finish in a three way tie for the PAC-10 Division IA championship. UCLA would have to defeat USC on December 3rd to gain the share. Interestingly, due to scheduling where each PAC-10 team only plays 8 opponents, UCLA and Oregon have not played each other. Now if USC defeats UCLA, it is all straightforward, they will get the automatic BCS berth, and most likely play the #2 BCS team in the Rose Bowl. That #2 team appears to be Texas. I feel quite confident that USC will be ranked number one if they defeat a ranked UCLA on national TV on December 3rd. However....What to do in the event of a three way tie?
Turn to page 119 of the 2005 PAC-10 media guide.
http://www.pac-10.org/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/092205aae.html(See the Bowl Games section for that page.)
I have seen many National columnists, as well as the Portland Oregonian, reporting that USC gets the BCS berth. They all cite the "complicated" PAC-10 tie breaking rules. However no one yet seems to have done the exercise in print. Here it is.
b. Multiple-Team Ties.When three or more teams are tied in Conference play, if one has defeated all the others, it shall be the Rose Bowl representative. If that is not the case, a team defeated by all other tied teams shall be eliminated and the appropriate two-team or multiple-team selection procedures will be utilized.
Neither applies here. UCLA and Oregon did not play each other.
If more than two teams are still tied, each team’s record against the team occupying the highest position in the final regular season standings that each team has played shall be compared, with the procedure continuing down through the standings until one team gains an advantage.
Start going through the list of teams in the 2005 PAC-10 standings that each has played and compare:
California: Oregon did not play them
Stanford: Defeated by UCLA, USC and Oregon
Arizona State: Ditto
Oregon State: Ditto Ditto
Arizona: Look at that - They beat UCLA, while Oregon and USC defeated them. Out goes UCLA.
Now it goes back to head to head meetings, and USC has defeated Oregon. USC is the BCS representative.
How did it work previously, and why the confusion?So, should USC, Oregon and UCLA all be 7-1 in PAC-10 conference play, here was the scenario according to the 2002 PAC-10 BSC tie breaker. I have studied this old Rose Bowl Tie Breaker document at:
http://www.pac-10.org/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/102802aai.html
It was much more arcane in this particular scenario. The new rules are more straightforward. Many people are finding this via search engines. But in fact it is old information.
I have broken up section B to make it more readable:
B) Multiple-Team Ties.
When three or more teams are tied in the loss-tie column in Conference play,
i.) if one has defeated all others, it shall be the Rose Bowl representative.
ii.) If that is not the case, a team defeated by all other tied teams shall be eliminated.
Same as above, neither applies here. UCLA and Oregon did not play each other.
iii.) If one team has not defeated the others, the point formula shall be computed. Only the top two teams on the point system shall thereafter be considered.
OK, UCLA and Oregon each tie with points (computed by wins and conference wins) for second place. But, UCLA, USC, and Oregon all tie if you do not count the USC game at Hawaii. It gets interesting if you could have counted the Hawaii game:
iv.) If a tie for the second position occurs upon application of the point formula,
a.) the second team shall be the winner of the game between the tied teams,
or,
b.)if the teams did not play each other or played a tie game, the team which has not played in the Rose Bowl for the longest period of time shall be the second team.
If you count Hawaii and allow Oregon and UCLA to tie for the second position, then Oregon has gone the longest (1995) vs UCLA (1998) without going to the Rose Bowl game. Then USC would represent the PAC-10, as they have defeated Oregon. However according to section D:
D) Games in Hawaii, Alaska. Games in Alaska or Hawaii shall not be counted in the point system if they are "12th games" permitted under NCAA legislation.
You cannot count the Hawaii game for USC. Back to section B:
c.) If more than two teams remain tied after computing the point formula,
the team most recently appearing in the Rose Bowl shall be eliminated and the appropriate two-team or multiple tie-breaking procedures are then applied to the remaining teams.
If you eliminate the Hawaii game, USC is eliminated because they represented the PAC-10 in the Rose Bowl 2004 and the BCS in 2005. Now the tie breaker comes down to UCLA and Oregon to see who represents the PAC-10.
* If the remaining two teams played one another, the winner shall be the representative.
** If they tied or did not play one another, the team with the highest point total for all games shall be the Rose Bowl representative.
*** If a tie remains, the team most recently appearing in the Rose Bowl shall be eliminated
Oregon had 400 points following the "Civil war" game.
UCLA had 400 points while awaiting the USC game.
If points determine the final representative, then UCLA gets the edge if they defeat USC. At minimum, if UCLA defeats USC 2-0 on a safety, Oregon would have needed to score 59 points against Oregon State. The Ducks came very close, by scoring 56.
Bad news for the Bruins. They were in under the old formula, but out according to the new.
